As the title implies, this thread is for news updates, analysis and discussion of the film's box office performance. Any info regarding revenue from merchandise, promotional tie-ins or ancillary markets (VOD/Blu-ray/DVD sales, etc) is also welcome here.
It'll be a few more days before we get the CinemaScore and other clear indicators of audience reaction, but based on the latest critic scores, social media and message board buzz, I think I'm ready to make an early box office forecast right now. Basically, I think it's going to be a smaller scale version Batman v Superman: a frontloaded release with a low multiplier that ultimately underperforms. It'll open huge thanks to presales and fan hype, possibly even breaking records for an August release. But the criticisms I'm hearing, combined with general audience burnout after BvS and the impending start of the Rio Olympics, makes me think this won't find traction with the average cinemagoer. I'm expecting steep drops in the second week and weak legs overall.
I may amend this prediction subject to audience response, but for now I'm going to say it'll finish somewhere in the region of $550-600 million WW. It should break even, but I don't see it making a large profit while it's in theatres. Ultimately I think it'll be the third financial disappointment in a row for the DCEU. But if it gets a CinemaScore of A and positive WOM, it might do better.
Does anyone else fancy making a prediction before the opening weekend?
Some very bad news on the box office front.
Firstly, numerous outlets are reporting the film's breakeven point as $800 million: http://uk.ign.com/articles/2016/08/04/suicide-squad-how-much-does-the-dc-movie-need-to-make-to-be-a-success
If this is accurate, then the movie's production and marketing costs must have been much bigger than we initially thought.
Secondly, it's looking more and more likely it won't get released in China: http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/suicide-squad-get-china-release-917206
There's now a very real possibility this could end up being a flop.
I think it will be, and frankly, it deserves to be.
Forbes contributor Mark Hughes has said the breakeven point is around the $600-650 million mark, which is more or less what I originally estimated:
QuoteNo, that's a mistaken figure. Break-even is in the $600-650M range.
https://twitter.com/markhughesfilms/status/761312239009738752
But my estimate was based on the $175 million production cost + $100-150 million marketing. The $800 million breakeven point would be roughly correct if the production budget was $250 million, as some outlets claimed. So which is it?
The $250 million figure seems to have been first mentioned during actor Ike Barinholtz's appearance on The Howard Stern Show last December: http://batman-news.com/2015/12/09/ike-barinholtz-suicide-squad-howard-stern/
The claim made by The Hollywood Reporter's inside source – that the film needs $750-800 million to break even – would apparently gel with Barinholtz's number: http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/suicide-squads-secret-drama-rushed-916693
The source of the $175 million figure is harder to trace. But even $600 million WW might be off the cards with China out of the picture.
Jeez. I really don't see how SS cost $250 million after having seen it. BvS? Sure. I can see that. SS? Not so much, but if so, it is what it is. I would like to see the film turn a profit, but with China out, that's going to be a uphill battle for sure. On the plus side, the only competition SS has next week is Sausage Party. We'll just have to wait and see how much of a drop off next weekend brings.
Strong opening figures place it on track for a $140 million opening weekend, which would shatter records for an August release. It should also be the third biggest domestic opening weekend of 2016.
CinemaScore is 'B', which is the same as Batman v Superman. It'll be interesting to see how it holds next week with Pete's Dragon and Sausage Party getting released, but I think we're in for a steep drop.
Probably. I didn't enjoy the movie as much as I should have. But I do hope it makes a profit for the sake of the ongoing franchise.
Quote from: Silver Nemesis on Sat, 6 Aug 2016, 12:53
Strong opening figures place it on track for a $140 million opening weekend, which would shatter records for an August release. It should also be the third biggest domestic opening weekend of 2016.
CinemaScore is 'B', which is the same as Batman v Superman. It'll be interesting to see how it holds next week with Pete's Dragon and Sausage Party getting released, but I think we're in for a steep drop.
Do you really think Pete's Dragon and Sausage Party represent much competition? The former in particular is going to appeal to an entirely different demographic (i.e. the family audience) and even if Sausage Party is getting good reviews, it seems to have rather niche appeal.
Quote from: The Dark Knight on Sat, 6 Aug 2016, 12:55
Probably. I didn't enjoy the movie as much as I should have. But I do hope it makes a profit for the sake of the ongoing franchise.
It seems to me like it's time for WB to consider a reboot.
If Spider-Man can be rebooted twice, and the first time was after Spider-Man 3 became the biggest domestic BO hit of 2007, I don't see why the Justice League can't be.
Quote from: johnnygobbs on Sat, 6 Aug 2016, 12:56
Do you really think Pete's Dragon and Sausage Party represent much competition? The former in particular is going to appeal to an entirely different demographic (i.e. the family audience) and even if Sausage Party is getting good reviews, it seems to have rather niche appeal.
It's hard to say. In this day and age, blockbuster movies
need the family audience to reach the big numbers. There are exceptions, like Deadpool, but they're few and far between. Just look at the weekend figures for April 15-17 of this year: Jungle Book opened to over $103 million, while BvS experienced a 61.4% drop and was knocked down to fourth place in the charts. I'm not saying Pete's Dragon with have an equally big impact on SS, but it could take a damagingly large slice of the box office.
As for Sausage Party, that's less likely to have a major impact. But it could also still cut into the box office, particularly in overseas territories where SS is being marketed to an older audience. In the UK, for example, SS is rated 15. Sausage Party is also rated 15. Neither of these films is going to appeal to the family demographic, but both could potentially snare the adult market. We'll have to wait and see.
SS should still hold the top spot next weekend. Even if it drops 60%, that would still rake in about $56 million. Analysts are presently forecasting a $30-35 million opening weekend for Pete's Dragon. So SS would still come out on top.
40% Friday-Saturday drop. Opening weekend predictions have been lowered to $130 million. For comparison, Batman v Superman experienced a 38% Friday-Saturday OW drop:
http://www.comicbookmovie.com/suicide_squad/box-office-40-fri-sat-drop-for-suicide-squad-a144310
Sadly, I am not surprised. DoJ wipes the floor with SS.
Looks like WB's DCEU is one that continues to remain front loaded, huh? If a big drop off is the projection for Suicide Squad, which would make it the 3rd time in a row it's happened, that can't do anything positive for WB's confidence going forward.
I've read the idea that WB may just have to settle for being akin to Michael Bay's Transformers, where they will undoubtedly get panned nearly across the board, but make bank. Problem with that is, the DCEU isn't exactly generating Transformers kinda dollars either.
Suicide Squad (2016)
$268,405,000 WW in one weekend.
Ghostbusters (2016)
$179,511,936 WW in almost a month.
Sony execs aren't taking the news well.
(https://www.batman-online.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FLziafHG.gif&hash=c5ce86155b07d5e65d51beea8993b94a8fe5a4b7)
Quote from: Silver Nemesis on Mon, 8 Aug 2016, 21:41
Suicide Squad (2016)
$268,405,000 WW in one weekend.
Ghostbusters (2016)
$179,511,936 WW in almost a month.
I'm really surprised, because the reviews for Ghostbusters (2016) have been so much better.
Quote from: Silver Nemesis on Mon, 8 Aug 2016, 21:41
Suicide Squad (2016)
$268,405,000 WW in one weekend.
Ghostbusters (2016)
$179,511,936 WW in almost a month.
The hunger for DC live actions films is there, regardless of reviews. Which is pleasing to see.
I don't think I buy the $600 million worldwide figure as the breakeven point. For one thing, that requires the marketing budget to be made back. Call me crazy but I thought that was the cost of doing business.
But for two things, it seems like only DC movies have to recoup marketing expenses. Every other movie in the stupid theaters is allowed to ignore their marketing costs.
No, I say $300 million is the break even point. After that, it's up to the number-crunchers in Hollywood to make sense of it.
Every dollar the studio puts into a film has to be recouped. You can discount the p & a costs under the assumption they'll be recouped through ancillary revenue (they usually are). But if you do that, you're not talking about the film breaking even at the box office; you're talking about the investment breaking even over a long-term period, factoring in money from merchandise, DVD sales, etc. That's not quite the same thing as breaking even at the box office. The marketing costs have to come from somewhere. A distributor won't simply donate $100-150 million out of the goodness of their hearts. They expect to get their money back and then some. And it's not just DC films. Ghostbusters had a production budget of $144 million, yet Paul Feig himself has confirmed it needs at least $500 million to break even. Cap 3 needed around $800 million. SS needs around $600 million (unless the budget really is $250 million, in which case it'll need around $800 million).
If Suicide Squad only grossed $300 million then I think Warner Bros would end up with a negative ROI of around -50%. It's crazy, I know. But that's the nature of modern film financing.
Suicide Squad saw a Friday-Friday drop of 79.4%. For reference, Batman v Superman's was 81.6%.
Estimated second weekend gross of $43.8 million for a total domestic haul of $222.9 million. It's still in first place, but that's a steep 67% drop.
https://twitter.com/GiteshPandya/status/764830857186144256
Estimated foreign weekend gross of $58.7 million for a total of $242.5 million. That's a drop of 56%. Estimated worldwide total is now $465.4 million.
https://twitter.com/GiteshPandya/status/764837909707063296
While the domestic drop is worrying, the foreign hold is more impressive. It's made over $240 million overseas in just over a week, while Ghostbusters took just $62.8 million in almost a month.
it's now surpassed 500 million which means it is officially not a flop. The IMDB rating is beginning to settle at 6.8 and keep in mind many Nolanites are voting 1 on it.
Quote from: riddler on Fri, 19 Aug 2016, 20:02
it's now surpassed 500 million which means it is officially not a flop. The IMDB rating is beginning to settle at 6.8 and keep in mind many Nolanites are voting 1 on it.
Surely, relative to its budget and expectations, it's done better business than BvS. After all, it's an August release featuring an ensemble of mostly b-characters (save for the Joker and Batman cameos, and the arguable exception of Harley Quinn).
Quote from: riddler on Fri, 19 Aug 2016, 20:02it's now surpassed 500 million which means it is officially not a flop.
Where are you seeing that? Box Office Mojo pegs it at $484 million worldwide as of August 18. So it'll probably be at (or beyond) $500 million worldwide by Monday, I suppose.
Apparently, the thinking goes that a movie has to triple its production cost worldwide in order to "truly" be profitable. That means Suicide Squad will have to hit $525 million... which seems pretty doable.
Quote from: riddler on Fri, 19 Aug 2016, 20:02The IMDB rating is beginning to settle at 6.8 and keep in mind many Nolanites are voting 1 on it.
They're seriously doing that? Seems rather petty.
Am I right in thinking the DCEU is performing better at this stage in comparison to when Marvel began their universe?
-- Iron Man
Production Budget- $140 million
Worldwide Gross- $585 million
-- Incredible Hulk
Production Budget- $150 million
Worldwide Gross- $263 million
-- Iron Man 2
Production Budget- $200 million
Worldwide Gross- $623 million
Marvel CU Total Budget- $490 million
Marvel CU Total Gross- $1.471 billion
-- Man of Steel
Production Budget- $225 million
Worldwide Gross- $668 million
-- Batman v Superman
Production Budget- $250 million
Worldwide Gross- $872 million
-- Suicide Squad
Production Budget- $175 million
Worldwide Gross- $485 million (and counting)
DECU Total Budget- $650 million
DECU Total Gross- $2 billion (and counting)
Quote from: The Dark Knight on Sat, 20 Aug 2016, 01:38Am I right in thinking the DCEU is performing better at this stage in comparison to when Marvel began their universe?
Yeah, I'd say so.
Thought so. That's why the doom and gloom downtalking of the DCEU is like bizarro world. There is a clear hunger for these characters and that is reflected in the numbers. Drop offs and such are irrelevant if you're banking doe. I don't know about anyone else, but I usually only see a movie once, and at most, twice. Movie tickets aren't cheap, and once the general public see something, they've seen it. They move on. For all the hoopla about CW making more money than BvS, it wasn't exactly a flogging. It was the same ballpark. So for BvS to be considered a failure raises my eyebrows. Wonder Woman and Justice League have buckets of potential, so I foresee good money there too.
The film has officially passed half a billion dollars and stays on top of the box office for a third week in a row.
Source: http://www.upi.com/Entertainment_News/Movies/2016/08/20/Suicide-Squad-passes-500M-box-office-milestone/8771471694592/
I may not have been a great fan of SS, but I'm glad that it's continuing to defy the DC naysayers.
Quote from: The Laughing Fish on Sun, 21 Aug 2016, 04:04
I may not have been a great fan of SS, but I'm glad that it's continuing to defy the DC naysayers.
That's what it's all about.
BvS is still #1 on disc sales for the fourth consecutive week, too.
http://variety.com/2016/digital/news/batman-films-remain-top-dvd-blu-ray-disc-sellers-1201840573/
Quote from: The Laughing Fish on Sun, 21 Aug 2016, 04:04
The film has officially passed half a billion dollars and stays on top of the box office for a third week in a row.
Source: http://www.upi.com/Entertainment_News/Movies/2016/08/20/Suicide-Squad-passes-500M-box-office-milestone/8771471694592/
I may not have been a great fan of SS, but I'm glad that it's continuing to defy the DC naysayers.
Yes indeed! It's not very far away from the $600 million worldwide mark.
By any reasonable standard, this is a successful movie.
SS has now overtaken Ant-Man and X-Men: Apocalypse at the Box Office.
Suicide Squad did way better than I thought it would once the initial "critic" reviews came out. However, once the regular folk got a chance to check the movie out, it became apparent that it was consistently getting better word of mouth reviews than the trashy combination of so-called "critics".
In addition, it's good to see that BvS remains #1 on disc sales for the fourth consecutive week, as TDK reported. I'm sure the adamant detractors will maintain their schtick that it all equals out to doom and gloom, but responding to such goofyness is just wasted labor.
Quote from: The Joker on Mon, 22 Aug 2016, 03:02
SS has now overtaken Ant-Man and X-Men: Apocalypse at the Box Office.
Suicide Squad did way better than I thought it would once the initial "critic" reviews came out. However, once the regular folk got a chance to check the movie out, it became apparent that it was consistently getting better word of mouth reviews than the trashy combination of so-called "critics".
In addition, it's good to see that BvS remains #1 on disc sales for the fourth consecutive week, as TDK reported. I'm sure the adamant detractors will maintain their schtick that it all equals out to doom and gloom, but responding to such goofyness is just wasted labor.
The anti-BvS crowd spin the narrative that nobody wants to support the movie. Yet it made a healthy chunk of doe and is performing strongly on home video. These day people go from 'I didn't like the movie' to 'the movie sucks and has no redeeming qualities - nobody should like it'. Not liking something is purely subjective.
Said movie is perfectly legitimate and all the moaning in the world doesn't change that fact. Simply put, some people weren't on board with the DCEU to begin with. Some haven't even seen the movies and speak with authority, holding up critic reviews as their proof. What a joke that is. Brainless sheep. The DCEU is banking money and based on feedback here, we're on board and enjoying the ride.
I don't really have a horse in this race, I'd love to see DC surpass s Marvel for simple fact that it means we'd have a darn good MCU but I'm not feeling it.
Critical and fan response plays a huge factor. Iron Man was a sleeper hit, the Incredible Hulk was not overly well anticipated only five years since the Bana film. The only anticipated film by that stage was Iron Man 2.
The big test for DC IMO will be can they finally make a profitable film without Batman or Superman? That puts wonder woman up against Thor next year. I guess we'll have to wait and see.
Quote from: The Dark Knight on Mon, 22 Aug 2016, 03:36The anti-BvS crowd spin the narrative that nobody wants to support the movie. Yet it made a healthy chunk of doe and is performing strongly on home video. These day people go from 'I didn't like the movie' to 'the movie sucks and has no redeeming qualities - nobody should like it'. Not liking something is purely subjective.
Said movie is perfectly legitimate and all the moaning in the world doesn't change that fact. Simply put, some people weren't on board with the DCEU to begin with. Some haven't even seen the movies and speak with authority, holding up critic reviews as their proof. What a joke that is. Brainless sheep. The DCEU is banking money and based on feedback here, we're on board and enjoying the ride.
Some people have no real leg to stand on when they judge and unnecessarily insult others for disliking this movie just because when they do the same. Have a very great day!
God bless you all!
Quote from: riddler on Mon, 22 Aug 2016, 16:02
The big test for DC IMO will be can they finally make a profitable film without Batman or Superman? That puts wonder woman up against Thor next year. I guess we'll have to wait and see.
Technically they have already done it with SS. But I can see WW being a hit regardless. I've seen a lot of genuine hype around the trailer being released. We need women flocking to the cinemas in droves. ;D
And generally speaking, I love the ignore function on this forum. Otherwise the semantic wars would still be raging. Let those people have a conversation with themselves.
QuoteI love the ignore function on this forum. Otherwise the semantic wars would still be raging. Let those people have a conversation with themselves.
;D
It's great, isn't? I didn't realise this forum had one till earlier this year.
Quote from: The Dark Knight on Tue, 23 Aug 2016, 00:13And generally speaking, I love the ignore function on this forum. Otherwise the semantic wars would still be raging. Let those people have a conversation with themselves.
I don't know why someone would want to ignore another because of semantics, but semantics isn't what's happening.
Quote from: The Laughing Fish on Tue, 23 Aug 2016, 01:14
QuoteI love the ignore function on this forum. Otherwise the semantic wars would still be raging. Let those people have a conversation with themselves.
;D
It's great, isn't? I didn't realise this forum had one till earlier this year.
Yeah, it's lovely.
The soundtrack is going well too.
QuoteSuicide Squad is only the fourth motion picture soundtrack to spend multiple weeks at Number One since 2000
http://www.rollingstone.com/music/news/on-the-charts-suicide-squad-reigns-again-w435517
Quote from: The Dark Knight on Tue, 23 Aug 2016, 07:50
Quote from: The Laughing Fish on Tue, 23 Aug 2016, 01:14
QuoteI love the ignore function on this forum. Otherwise the semantic wars would still be raging. Let those people have a conversation with themselves.
;D
It's great, isn't? I didn't realise this forum had one till earlier this year.
Yeah, it's lovely.
The soundtrack is going well too.
QuoteSuicide Squad is only the fourth motion picture soundtrack to spend multiple weeks at Number One since 2000
http://www.rollingstone.com/music/news/on-the-charts-suicide-squad-reigns-again-w435517
I didn't know there was an ignore function. Thanks I should use it!
And yeah the soundtrack is something we haven't discussed much here but it is excellent.
Quote from: The Dark Knight on Tue, 23 Aug 2016, 00:13
And generally speaking, I love the ignore function on this forum. Otherwise the semantic wars would still be raging. Let those people have a conversation with themselves.
There's an ignore function on this forum?! Thank god! Thank god, for every ignore feature in your life!
Quote from: riddler on Tue, 23 Aug 2016, 14:39
Quote from: The Dark Knight on Tue, 23 Aug 2016, 07:50
Quote from: The Laughing Fish on Tue, 23 Aug 2016, 01:14
QuoteI love the ignore function on this forum. Otherwise the semantic wars would still be raging. Let those people have a conversation with themselves.
;D
It's great, isn't? I didn't realise this forum had one till earlier this year.
Yeah, it's lovely.
The soundtrack is going well too.
QuoteSuicide Squad is only the fourth motion picture soundtrack to spend multiple weeks at Number One since 2000
http://www.rollingstone.com/music/news/on-the-charts-suicide-squad-reigns-again-w435517
I didn't know there was an ignore function. Thanks I should use it!
And yeah the soundtrack is something we haven't discussed much here but it is excellent.
Thinking about it, Short Change Hero by The Heavy would've fit Suicide Squad like a tailored straight jacket.
Oh, and now that you have discovered the ignore feature, don't use it on me. Your choice of course, but you'd be missing out on some high quality discourse. ;D
Suicide Squad just had its first weekend of less than $2 million. This coming weekend will be its 10th in theaters. And unless the movie loses a LOT of theaters between now and then (which I suppose is possible), it won't likely drop beneath $1 million for that weekend's haul.
I must say, the movie has pretty impressive legs. Star Trek Beyond dropped below the $1 million weekend threshold back in its 7th weekend. Suicide Squad isn't there yet even in weekend #9.
When all is said and done, the movie will have nearly doubled its budget in the US and done nearly 2.5 times its budget internationally. The worldwide haul presently stands at $738 million. Anybody who's ashamed of those numbers needs his head examined.
By any standard, Suicide Squad was a major hit.
The movie played in fewer than a thousand theaters last weekend (its tenth weekend) and it STILL grossed over a million dollars.
There's just no arguing the film's legs. I was originally expecting it to have a sub-million dollar weekend no later than weekend #7. And let's be realistic, weekend #11 probably will be less than $1 million. But that's probably only because it'll lose more theaters.
WB has a lot to take pride in when it comes to Suicide Squad. This movie started off as a joke and has gone on to become one of the breakout movies of this year. I saw a lot of Harley costumes (of various types) when I went to a costume party at my step daughter's elementary school. Some kid put together his own Deadshot outfit too.
These characters are bigger than any of us (or at least I) ever thought.